Belmont, Belmont

My horseracing informant site just released the list of the Belmont Stakes contenders! I'm very excited about the field. Here they are, all 12 of them, in their post position order:


1) Master of Hounds, 10-1
2) Stay Thirsty, 20-1
3) Ruler on Ice, 20-1
4) Santiva, 15-1
5) Brilliant Speed, 15-1
6)Nehro, 4-1
7) Monzon, 30-1
8) Prime Cut, 15-1
9) Animal Kingdom, 2-1
10) Mucho Macho Man, 10-1
11) Isn't He Perfect, 30-1
12) Shackleford, 9-2

The numbers next to each name are their odds. While one should not go by the odds, because they're full of race accociation and biased opinions, you also shouldn't ignore them either. They tell a lot. The favorite so far is Shackleford, the Preakness Stakes winner. Next is, fittingly, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. Then it's Nehro. He's my horse; I want him to win so bad.

Brilliant Speed

   My sister, Kate, pointed out a hugely legit piece of information to me about the horse Brilliant Speed. That average sized bay colt has a TON of Belmont Stakes winners in his pedigree. Secretariat, Nashua, and A.P. Indy, to name a few. Brilliant Speed's pedigree is EVERYTHING brilliant, and more.
   Stay Thirsty has a similar advantage. ^
   As I mentioned in my earlier post about the Belmont, Prime Cut has a great pedigree as well. It closely includes the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. However, people don't really consider him to be a big Belmont threat. He got a great place (second) in his last race, The Peter Pan. His trainer, Neil Howard, said of him:

"We made the decision the other day that we’d go ahead and run, pending everything going good through this week. He’s doing good. We don’t feel like we’ve pushed or reached to much with him, and he’s got a nice prep over Belmont. So we kind of left it that we’d go ahead if everything went well this morning, and it did”.

Nehro

   But still, Nehro, the son of Mineshaft and The Administrator, remains my favorite for the Belmont win. Because the Derby runner-up skipped out on the Preakness, he will be fresh and a definite challenge.
   His post position is ok, being in the middle of the 12 horse field. It's not the greatest, in my opinion. Being in the middle, the horse either has to drop back to the VERY BACK, risk being boxed in, or pull ahead really fast. Because all the horses are going in one direction: forward, and to the left. Get what I mean? Nehro is in the middle of the fray with position 6.

“Nehro is very versatile and he can be anywhere,” Brad Weisbord said. “In Louisiana he was very close to the pace, in Arkansas he was far back, and in Kentucky he was closer, and I believe that was because of the slower pace.”
   The same problem is for the number 1 position horse, Master of Hounds. But it might work for the bay, European based horse.
   There really isn't such thing as definite a "bad post position". When you get down to it, it all depends on the horse's running style in the end.

This year's Triple Crown field has been super impressive, compared to the last few years. Last year was Super Saver's time to shine. In 2009 it was Mine that Bird, a no-name horse from New Mexico who had arrived at Churchill in a one-horse trailer. The Birdstone colt has yet to pick that shine back up, though. He's off the board.

Prime Cut

   But this year is completely different. We've got numerous different colts to look at: Nehro, The Factor, Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Mucho Macho Man... And that's only naming a few.
   But despite their greatness, there will not be a Triple Crown this year. *sighs* I'm waiting patiently for the 12th one though. Patiently. (yes, I'm lying to myself)
   Big Brown was the most recent horse to almost capture the Triple Crown, but he was pulled up in the Belmont with a bent shoe. In 2004 there was the miraculous Smarty Jones. He won the Derby and Preakness with cunning speed and brilliance. He was tragically beaten in the Belmont by a length. A single, history defying length.

So you really can't tell who will win, despite what the odds say.

   Stay tuned. :)